While the war in Ukraine continues, diplomats attempting to salvage the stalled 2015 Iran nuclear deal have continued negotiations despite the conflict’s distractions. They now appear to be on the verge of striking a deal that would reintroduce the US into the accord and bring Iran back into compliance with the accord’s nuclear-weapons limitations.
After 11 months of on-again, off-again talks in Vienna, US officials, and others say only a small number of outstanding issues remain. Meanwhile, Russia appears to have backed down from a threat to scuttle a deal over Ukraine-related sanctions, which had dimmed prospects for a quick resolution.
This leaves an agreement — or at the very least a principled agreement — to Washington and Tehran’s political leaders. However, as has frequently been the case, both Iran and the US maintain that those decisions must be made by the other side, leaving a resolution in limbo despite the fact that all parties agree the matter is urgent and must be resolved immediately.
US States spokesperson said that they are close to a nuclear agreement with Iran
“We are close to reaching an agreement, but we are not there yet,” State Department spokesman Ned Price said on Wednesday. “We’ll find out in the near future whether we’re capable of getting there.” Additionally, German Foreign Ministry spokesman Christofer Burger said Wednesday in Berlin that work on “drafting a final text” had concluded and that “the necessary political decisions now need to be made in capitals.” “We hope that these negotiations can now be concluded expeditiously,” he added.
Since the Biden administration took office, re-entering the 2015 deal known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or JCPOA, has been a priority.
Once a signature foreign policy achievement of the Obama administration, during which current Vice President Joe Biden served as Vice President, the accord was abandoned in 2018 by then-President Donald Trump, who described it as the worst deal ever negotiated and immediately began restoring and expanding on previously lifted US sanctions.
The Biden administration argues that any threat posed by Iran at the moment would become infinitely more dangerous if it were to acquire a nuclear weapon. Deal critics, the majority of whom are Republicans, argue that the original deal paved the way for Iran to develop a nuclear weapon by removing various constraints through so-called “sunset” clauses. These clauses indicated that certain restrictions would be phased out gradually.
Both sides’ arguments intensified over the weekend when Iran launched missile strikes near the US consulate compound in Erbil, northern Iraq. For critics, the attack demonstrated that Iran cannot be trusted and that no sanctions relief should be granted. The administration confirmed that Iran would pose a greater threat if it were to acquire a nuclear weapon.
“What it demonstrates to us is that Iran poses a threat to our allies, partners, and, in some cases, the United States, across a variety of domains,” Mr. Price said. “The most immediate threat we would face would be a nuclear-armed Iran or an Iran on the verge of acquiring a nuclear weapon.” Meanwhile, a new ray of hope for progress emerged on Wednesday with the release of two British citizens detained in Iran. The US, which withdrew from the nuclear deal in 2018, and the three European countries that remain signatories had previously stated that reaching an agreement would be difficult, if not impossible, while those detainees, as well as several American citizens, remain imprisoned in Iran.
Mr. Price stated on Tuesday that if the prisoner issue is resolved, the gaps in the nuclear negotiations could be quickly closed if Iran makes the political decision to return to compliance. “We believe that if decisions are made in capitals, including Tehran, we will be in a position to close those gaps, to close that remaining distance,” Mr. Price said.
Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdolahian, however, stated that a deal is entirely dependent on Washington. “Now, more than ever, the onus is on the United States to provide the necessary responses to ensure the talks’ success,” he said following a meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in Moscow on Tuesday. Mr. Amirabdolahian stated that he had been “reassured that Russia will continue to support the final Vienna agreement.” Mr. Lavrov indicated that the negotiations were in the “home stretch” and that Russian objections to the potential spillover of Ukraine-related sanctions into activities Moscow might engage in with Tehran under a new nuclear deal had been overcome.
He stated that the proposed agreement would exclude those activities, which the US has not denied, and has stated that the Russians should have understood from the start.
“We would not sanction Russian involvement in nuclear projects that are necessary for resuming full implementation of the (deal),” Mr. Price stated. “We cannot and will not do so, and we have made no additional assurances to Russia.” He stated that the United States would not permit Russia to circumvent Ukraine-related sanctions by channeling money or other assets through Iran. Any deal “will not be an escape hatch for the Russian Federation and the sanctions imposed on it as a result of the Ukraine war.” Deal critics are skeptical that Russia will not attempt to circumvent Ukraine sanctions in dealings with Iran and have warned that sanctions-busting is just one of the reasons they will oppose a new agreement.
Earlier this week, all but one of the Senate’s 50 Republicans signed a joint statement vowing to withdraw from any agreement with Iran that imposes time limits on restrictions on advanced nuclear work or fails to address other concerns, including Iran’s ballistic missile program and military support for proxies in Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen.
While the GOP will not be able to block a deal now, it may control both chambers of Congress following November’s midterm elections. This would make it more difficult for the administration to remain committed to any agreement reached.
Another point of contention for critics of the deal is the extent of the sanctions relief that the Biden administration is prepared to provide Iran if it returns to compliance with the deal. Iran has been demanding the removal of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) designation as a “foreign terrorist organization” by the Trump administration. The US has vetoed that unless Iran commits to ending its funding and arming of extremist groups in the region and beyond. The issue is significant in Washington, not least because the IRGC is suspected of making specific and credible threats against former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and the Trump administration’s Iran envoy Brian Hook.