What does Russia’s announcement of troop withdrawal from Ukraine’s borders mean?

A video showing Russian troops leaving Crimea was released by the Russian Defense Ministry on Wednesday. This happened a day after Russian President Vladimir Putin declared that Russia would “partially withdraw soldiers” from Ukraine’s borders, and the Russian Defense Ministry said that some forces from military districts would be returned back.

On Ukraine’s northern, eastern, and southern borders, an estimated 130,000 Russian troops are stationed. Putin’s announcement is the clearest indication yet that Russia is attempting to de-escalate the situation that has led to the military standoff near the Ukrainian border. After weeks of brinkmanship with the West, this is the first evidence that Russia may be backing away from escalation.

The truth behind Troop’s Movement

Only the departure of units from Russia’s Western and Southern Military Districts was announced by the Russian Defense Ministry on Tuesday. Because such areas are closest to Ukraine, troops may be quickly dispatched to the border if necessary.

According to satellite images, units from Russia’s Central and Eastern Military Districts, which are among the country’s most sophisticated, are still deployed and have been positioned in attack formations in recent weeks, some within a few dozen miles of Ukraine‘s border.

Analysts believe that even if Russia withdraws a significant number of units from the Western and Southern Military Districts, it will still have sufficient forces to launch serious military incursions, particularly from the north, in the direction of Kharkiv, Ukraine, and from the Crimean Peninsula. Russia has established a large troop presence in the region, which includes assault aircraft, fast response special troops, and airborne groups.

The Russian Navy alone has enough forces in the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov to launch a substantial amphibious assault on the Ukrainian shore, with 2,000 men and over 200 tanks and armored vehicles loaded onto six huge landing craft dispatched from Russia’s Baltic and Northern Fleets.

Russia announced the completion of military drills in Crimea on Wednesday afternoon, and troops started departing. “A day after announcing a first troop pullout from Ukraine’s borders, Russia claims military training in Moscow-annexed Crimea have ended and soldiers are returning to their garrisons.” 

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