Amid the present turmoil, India’s request for a CAATSA waiver may be hampered. With tensions between Russia and the West over the Ukraine crisis rising, India, which has significant defense cooperation with both Moscow and Kyiv, faces uncertainty about timely deliveries in the near future, as well as the threat of US sanctions under CAATSA (Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act) over the S-400 deal.
Tensions between Russia and Ukraine have already slowed the upgrading of the Indian Air Force’s AN-32 cargo fleet (IAF). “At this time, it is too early to say, but deliveries from Russia may be delayed due to domestic responsibilities as well as sanctions imposed by the West.” On the condition of anonymity, an official source said, “It will take some time to acquire a clearer picture.”
Present Turmoil could hamper India’s request for CAATSA waiver
Two individuals independently stated that the present turmoil could hamper India’s request for a CAATSA waiver from the US government. While the S-400 deliveries began in December and are now underway, one of the officials emphasized that certainty on the timely completion was still expected.
The severance of ties and economic penalties imposed by the West on Russia has been described as “unprecedented” by several experts. In this context, India wants a working supply chain with Russia for spares and maintenance, which is crucial for its military.
“It will be very unfortunate if the US has the same objective as China – to weaken the India-Russia defense relationship to the detriment of India’s defense capabilities,” former Indian Ambassador to Russia D. B. Venkatesh Varma said in response to questions about possible US restrictions on Russian equipment.
Supplier of traditional military equipment
While Russia has long been a traditional military supplier, sharing platforms and technologies that others would not, a collaboration between the two countries has grown in recent years. For example, the defense trade between the two countries has surpassed $15 billion since 2018, thanks to the $5.43 billion agreement for S-400 air defense systems, as well as other big-ticket deals.
Even now, over 60% of India’s military inventory is Russian-made, particularly in the areas of fighter jets, tanks, helicopters, and submarines, with other big deals in the works.
For example, in December, India, and Russia agreed to a 5000 crore contract to jointly manufacture 6.1 lakh AK-203 assault weapons in Uttar Pradesh. After the summit in December, Alexander Mikheev, Director General of Rosoboronexport, stated that production will begin in a few months and that full-scale production would be achieved in 2-3 years.
Additionally, Russia is building two stealth frigates for the Russian Navy. They will be delivered beginning next year, with two more being built by the Goa Shipyard Limited under a technology transfer agreement. The ships’ keels have been laid, and the Navy says the first will be delivered in 2026, followed by the second six months later.
For the frigates, India has signed a separate agreement with Ukraine for eight Zorya-Mashproekt gas turbine engines. Officials previously told The Hindu that the engines, gearboxes, and professional support will cost roughly $50 million per ship. India had received the engines for the first two frigates and had given them to Russia for the frigates that were being built there. The state of the engines for the frigates being manufactured in India, on the other hand, remains unknown.
The third Akula class nuclear assault submarine (SSN) is expected to arrive in India in 2025. With the current offensive, Russia’s defense sector may be preoccupied with supplying its own soldiers, according to a military officer, who expressed hope that Russia would be able to assure timely delivery.
According to a 2009 agreement, Ukraine is refurbishing more than 100 IAF An-32 cargo aircraft. While 45 An-32s were upgraded in Ukraine in 2015, the remaining aircraft were scheduled to be upgraded by the IAF Base Repair Depot in Kanpur. Officials in Ukraine have indicated that all contractual requirements for the local upgrading will be met by 2020, albeit the present condition is unknown at this time.
The IAF purchased R-27 air-to-air missiles for its SU-30MKI jets as a result of the Balakot air strike in 2019. Ukraine inked four deals for $70 million in February 2021 at Aero India, including the sale of new weapons as well as the maintenance and modernization of current weapons in service with the Indian military, as previously reported.