China has reached out to New Delhi two years after the military stalemate along the Line of Actual Control in Ladakh to rekindle bilateral talks and set the stage for the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) meeting in China later this year.
Beijing has proposed a series of activities to kick off the dialogue, beginning with high-level visits from both sides.
For starters, Beijing has proposed that Chinese State Councillor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi visit India this month. External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar would pay a reciprocal visit after that. The Chinese side has also offered a series of high-level visits by members of the Chinese Politburo and senior officials in President Xi Jinping’s administration.
The Chinese have also proposed a ‘Civilization Dialogue between India and China,’ which would take place in both countries. They’ve also proposed a Trade and Investment Cooperation Forum between India and China, as well as a Film Forum between the two countries.
China is moving forward
But China’s ultimate goal is to welcome Prime Minister Narendra Modi for the BRICS conference in person, which will also include Russian President Vladimir Putin. On the fringes of the BRICS meeting, China, which is also chairing the RIC (Russia-India-China) trilateral this year, could host the leaders’ summit.
In the current situation, it is politically impossible for Modi to meet with Xi in person, especially because the border impasse has yet to be resolved. Their last face-to-face meeting was in November 2019 in Brazil for the BRICS summit. Xi visited India in October 2019 for an informal summit in Mahabalipuram.
Modi attended the last BRICS meeting in China, which was held in Xiamen in September 2017. In fact, the Doklam border impasse was settled immediately before the BRICS summit after two and a half months. Beijing is showing its desire to restore ties this time by reaching out with a potential Foreign Minister-level visit.
But, from New Delhi’s perspective, that’s easier said than done on the ground. Following a severe skirmish in the Pangong lake areas on May 5, 2020, the standoff in eastern Ladakh began, and both sides gradually increased their deployment by bringing in tens of thousands of soldiers as well as heavy equipment.
The two sides concluded the disengagement process on the north and south banks of the Pangong Tso in February 2021, and in the Gogra area in August, following a series of military and diplomatic talks. While forces must yet disengage in two more regions, a larger de-escalation is still a long way off. With around 50,000 troops amassed on both sides of the LAC, the situation remains unresolved.
China will host 14th BRICS Conference
There is a potential window of opportunity to break the impasse: China will host the 14th BRICS conference in 2022. Officials believe there is a lever that can be used, similar to how the Doklam border standoff was settled days before the Xiamen meeting in September 2017.
The timing of laying the framework for the prospective BRICS conference is particularly crucial since Russia is facing international condemnation for its military intervention in Ukraine. Russia, as one of the BRICS members, will attend the summit, and standing alongside Russian President Vladimir Putin will be seen as a type of endorsement.
Beijing’s outreach is an opportunity in Delhi’s eyes, as two years of strained ties have resulted in a reversal of gains earned over the previous three decades. While India has long claimed that the border situation has harmed bilateral relations, China has insisted that the border dispute be addressed responsibly and that the bigger picture of bilateral relations is considered.
Because of this difference in attitude, there have been no bilateral visits, however, there have been focused bilateral discussions between Indian and Chinese Foreign Ministers and Defense Ministers in other countries, such as Russia and Tajikistan, which are seen as neutral venues. The two sides have also taken part in a number of international meetings, including virtual BRICS, G-20, and SCO summits, among others.
Officials said New Delhi’s strategy of requiring three “mutuals” to heal strained ties between India and China is critical. Jaishankar had identified the three “mutuals” as mutual respect, mutual sensitivity, and shared interests in January 2021, and stated they were deciding elements for bilateral ties.