The Indian Institute of Technology, Kanpur, has emphasized that there will be no further COVID-19 waves. It was a self-conducted study by a group of researchers from their Department of Mathematics and Statistics, who developed a mathematical model and submitted it to a pre-print server for expert feedback. According to the Health Ministry’s submission to the Rajya Sabha on Tuesday, the study was not peer-reviewed.
Dr. Bharati Pravin Pawar, Minister of State in the Ministry of Health, responded to a question from member Brijlal by saying that modeling studies were based on a certain set of inputs, either real-world scenarios or approximations of those inputs that were not available (which may vary in accuracy according to the technique used). “These studies frequently involve taking a tiny actual sample and extrapolating the results to the entire population,” she noted.
While such procedures may get near-accurate answers for a small homogeneous country/region, she pointed out that they have consistently failed to produce dependable results for a vast, diversified population.
Health Ministry closely tracking COVID trajectory across globe
The Health Ministry said it was closely tracking COVID-19’s trajectory globally and in the country, together with several expert committees, due to the introduction of COVID-19 virus variants with varying transmissibility and other public health repercussions.
Furthermore, the Indian SARS-CoV-2 Genomics Consortium (INSACOG) of laboratories was performing whole-genome sequencing of samples in order to find mutant viral variations in a timely manner.
‘Necessary assistance has been provided’
Stakeholders were given the necessary technical and financial assistance to improve their preparedness and response capabilities in the face of COVID-19 and other public health emergencies. “Through the National Health Mission, State Disaster Response Funds (SDRF), and Emergency COVID-19 Response and Preparedness packages, funding support have been provided to States/UTs for health system strengthening to handle any exigency owing to the resurgence of cases in the country,” the Minister noted.
Regular review meetings with all key stakeholders, including topic specialists and states, were held to assess pandemic readiness and response measures based on the five-step plan of test-tack-treat-vaccinate and adherence to COVID proper behavior.