According to a survey by the Confederation of Indian Industry (CII), India’s GDP can expand from $3 trillion to $9 trillion by 2030, and $40 trillion by 2047, if the country’s working-age population — which is predicted to grow by over 100 million people between 2020 and 2030 — is productively employed (CII).
According to the report, India’s demographic dividend might become a liability if it does not create enough jobs and its workers are not well equipped for them. This, it noted, can only be done on a long-term basis if policy frameworks for education and workforce management are changed.
“Because the job market is skewed toward high-skill labor, India will face challenges in creating jobs for low-skill labor, which will continue to dominate its workforce,” it stated.
Despite a lowering trend infertility rate, India’s working-age population of 15-64 million people (67 percent of the entire population) is predicted to grow by another 100 million by 2030, to 900 million people (67 percent of the total population). According to the estimate, India will account for 24.3 percent of the additional global workforce over the next ten years.
CII: ‘Golden era’ is a term used to describe a period of time
“The golden period of 30 years between 2020 and 2020, when our working-age population will swell,” the CII research observes, “maybe a key horizontal enabler to bolster growth, even as the developed world, including China, ages.”
According to the report, while India’s literacy rate has increased over time, the degree of vocational training/skilling has remained low, resulting in a high jobless rate among the educated. “Closing the skill gaps of its qualified workforce will be critical, as India relies more on human capital than peer countries with similar levels of economic development,” it said, adding that skilling and reskilling will require a coordinated response from the government, industry, and academia, even as COVID continues to cause structural changes in the workplace.
“India’s structural transition back to agriculture is a symptom of a reversion to subsistence employment.” Enhanced safety nets, such as PM-KISAN and the MGNREGA, will be key investments in ensuring that small and marginal farmers’ incomes are preserved and their basic requirements are addressed… However, manufacturing and services will continue to be the two main development engines in the future,” it stated.