According to a recent analysis released on Tuesday by the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) and JMK Research, India is likely to miss its solar energy target of 300 GW (gigawatt) for 2030 by roughly 86 GW. According to the analysis, India is on track to fall short of its objective of 100 GW of installed solar capacity by around 27% this year.
India’s cumulative installed solar capacity was 55 GW as of December 2021, with grid-connected utility-scale projects accounting for 77 percent and grid-connected rooftop solar (20 percent) and mini or micro off-grid projects accounting for the balance (3 percent ). According to the analysis, by December 2022, the 40 GW rooftop solar objective will have been missed by 25 GW, and the 60 GW utility-scale solar target would have been missed by 1.8 GW.
Regulatory roadblocks, net metering limits, basic customs duty (BCD) on imported cells and modules, issues with the approved list of models and manufacturers (ALMM), unsigned power supply agreements (PSAs), banking restrictions, and other factors all contributed to the 27 GW shortfall from the 2022 target.
In a statement, co-author Vibhuti Garg, an energy economist and lead (India) at IEEFA, said, “The predicted 27 GW shortfall from the 2022 solar objective can be linked to a litany of problems that are impeding overall progress on renewable energy targets.”
Only over half of the 100 GW target has been met with eight months left in 2022. In 2022, over 19 GW of solar capacity will be added, with 15.8 GW coming from utility-scale solar and 3.5 GW from rooftop solar. “Even with this capacity expansion, around 27% of India’s 100 GW solar ambition will remain unmet,” said Jyoti Gulia, founder of JMK Research, who was also a co-author of the paper.
The solar energy sector in India grew at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 59 percent between 2011 and 2021, from 0.5 GW in 2011 to 55 GW in 2021. The National Solar Mission was established by the Centre in January 2010, with an aim of 20 GW of total installed capacity by 2022. The goal was revised to 100 GW in 2015, with no changes to the schedule. The government boosted the aim to 300 GW for 2030 in August 2021.
The ministry of new and renewable energy (MNRE) was contacted by HT for comment on the report’s conclusions. Officials from the MNRE have yet to reply to the delay. According to the MNRE website, India has surpassed Italy to become the world’s fifth-largest solar power deployment country; the top four countries are China, the United States, Japan, and Germany.
In the last five years, solar power capacity has expanded by more than 11 times, from 2.6 GW in March 2014 to 30 GW in July 2019. India’s solar tariffs are currently competitive and have reached grid parity. Solar rates in India have been cut by more than 75% thanks to a plug-and-play technology that makes all governmental approvals available to investors.
India’s capacity-building effort in the utility-scale arena is noteworthy
“India’s capacity-building effort in the utility-scale arena is noteworthy. Utility-scale generation is on track to meet roughly 97 percent of its 60 GW goal. Rooftop solar, on the other hand, has underperformed over the years, with just about a fourth of the 40 GW objective being met. This section is predicted to fall 25 GW short of its target by December 2022. “It is critical to place a larger emphasis on and make more coordinated efforts to increase rooftop solar,” according to the research.
IEEFA and JMK Research have proposed short- and long-term initiatives to accelerate the sector’s progress. These include, among other things, uniform policies that will apply across the country for at least the next five years, consistent net metering and banking regulations that will apply across the country, banking restrictions that will be lifted at least until rooftop targets are met, stricter enforcement of the renewable purchase obligation (RPO) by states, and a capital subsidy for battery energy storage systems (BESS).
Prime Minister Narendra Modi declared at the Glasgow climate summit on November 1 last year that India’s non-fossil energy capacity will reach 500 GW by 2030, fulfilling 50% of the country’s energy needs. He stated that India’s total anticipated carbon emissions will be reduced by one billion tonnes by 2030, the carbon intensity of its economy will be reduced by 45 percent by 2030 over 2005 levels, and the country will attain net-zero emissions by 2070.
“India’s solar energy target of 100 GW for 2022, set in 2014, was based on the country’s high economic development rate. With the economy not operating as planned due to a variety of issues, the most notable of which is the economic impact of the Covid-19 pandemic, overall electricity demand has not increased as expected, leaving little room for solar capacity expansion. Missing the aim by a wide margin is unavoidable in this circumstance. If economic growth is restrained in this decade, we may see a similar effect for the 2030 targets. This simply means that the government must go above and beyond what it is now doing in terms of policy pushes in order to fulfill the globally announced 2030 target,” said Vaibhav Chaturvedi, a fellow at the Council on Energy, Environment, and Water (CEEW).